Product Description
The Earth's human population is expected to pass eight billion by the year 2025, while rapid growth in the global economy will spur ever increasing demands for natural resources. The world will consequently face growing scarcities of such vital renewable resources as cropland, fresh water, and forests. Thomas Homer-Dixon argues in this sobering book that these environmental scarcities will have profound social consequences--contributing to insurrections, ethnic clashes, urban unrest, and other forms of civil violence, especially in the developing world.

Homer-Dixon synthesizes work from a wide range of international research projects to develop a detailed model of the sources of environmental scarcity. He refers to water shortages in China, population growth in sub-Saharan Africa, and land distribution in Mexico, for example, to show that scarcities stem from the degradation and depletion of renewable resources, the increased demand for these resources, and/or their unequal distribution. He shows that these scarcities can lead to deepened poverty, large-scale migrations, sharpened social cleavages, and weakened institutions. And he describes the kinds of violence that can result from these social effects, arguing that conflicts in Chiapas, Mexico and ongoing turmoil in many African and Asian countries, for instance, are already partly a consequence of scarcity.

Homer-Dixon is careful to point out that the effects of environmental scarcity are indirect and act in combination with other social, political, and economic stresses. He also acknowledges that human ingenuity can reduce the likelihood of conflict, particularly in countries with efficient markets, capable states, and an educated populace. But he argues that the violent consequences of scarcity should not be underestimated--especially when about half the world's population depends directly on local renewables for their day-to-day well-being. In the next decades, he writes, growing scarcities will affect billions of people with unprecedented severity and at an unparalleled scale and pace.

Clearly written and forcefully argued, this book will become the standard work on the complex relationship between environmental scarcities and human violence. ... Read more

Customer Reviews (5)

Scholarly analysis
Thomas Homer-Dixon's "Environment, Scarcity and Violence" offers a scholarly analysis of the role environmental scarcity plays in spawning violent human conflicts. The author uses social science research methodology to isolate the independent variable of environmental scarcity in order to study the ways it may or may not contribute to violence. Importantly, Homer-Dixon has found that environmental scarcity, while insignificant in itself, is a significant factor in amplifying the underlying tensions that may in turn fuel a society's descent into violence.

The author goes on to argue that countries that possess sufficient quantities of ingenuity may be able to avert violence by curing their environmental crises through the application of advanced technological and managerial skills. On the other hand, nations that lack ingenuity -- or those who lose intellectual capital as the result of their deteriorating environments -- are more apt to descend into violence as these societies negatively respond to their crises by turning against themselves.

Although the book provides no easy answers to the stated problems, it does suggest that democracy and international cooperation will be badly needed in the struggle to create a peaceful and stable planet. I strongly recommended this outstanding book to policy makers and others who are interested in learning how we might secure a non-violent future for ourselves in an increasingly tumultuous world.

Thoughtful, General, Missing the Big Bang

Last year we had some exceptional works on water scarcity (de Villier), resource wars (Klare), corporate razing of the environment (Czech), among many others that I reviewed here on Amazon. This year we have two extraordinary books, this is the second of the two in my estimation (the other being Andrew Price-Smith's "The Health of Nations: Infectious Disease, Environmental Change, and Their Effects on National Security and Development"- as both authors are from the University of Toronto, one can only applaud the collection of talent this organization seems to nurture).

The author is brilliant and has a longer track record than most for being both prescient and meticulous about in the arena of environmental scarcity.

His book is effective in making the point, but very candidly, did not go the full distance that I was hoping for--he is, in a word, too general and the book lacks a single chapter that pulls it all together with very specific rankings of both the variables and the countries.

The general proposition is clear-cut: environmental scarcity has social effects that lead to violent conflict. However, the author takes a side road in exploring "human ingenuity" as an ameliorating factor, and while he makes reference to crass corporate and elitist carpet-bagging and the social structures of repression, he fails to draw out more fully and explicitly the inherent association between repressive corrupt regimes with extreme concentrations of wealth and power, scarcity, and violence.

For myself, I found two gems within this book: the first, a passing comment on the crucial role that unfettered urbanization plays in exacerbating scarcity and all that comes with it (migration, disease, crime); the second, the author's prescriptive emphasis, extremely importance, on the prevention of scarcity rather than adaptation or amelioration of scarcity.

The endnotes would have been more useful as footnotes but are quite good. The bibliography and index are four star rather than five star, and I was quite disappointed to not have a single page about the author, nor a consolidated bibliography of his many signal contribution over time in the form of articles and lectures.

Sources of strife
Using an amazing array of information, this book is a call for answers - a welcome departure from the usual array of studies of environment and social issues.Homer-Dixon's argues that the many works published on the impact of humanity on the environment don't even ask the correct questions, let alone provide worthwhile solutions. Realizing that the impact of environmental degradation will be difficult to forecast, he examines the relation of resource loss and social change.The underlying theme is whether the scacity will lead to violent action.With this tight focus, he proposes a straightforward formula of environmental scarcity leading through social effects resulting in violent conflict.Is this a valid chain of causation?The book examines this question with numerous case studies of nations in the "developing" world.The wealth of information presented with Homer-Dixon's penetrating analyses of the circumstances makes this book an important resource for politicians, social planners and anyone interested in our planet's future.

The author carefully defines his terms, methods and intentions at the outset.Resource availability, partcularly renewable resources, are a key foundation, since so many social actions result from whether crops, forests and fisheries are plentiful or depleted.While the author argues that wars are rarely the result of resource depletion, internal strife can often be traced to environmental degradation. He cites examples in Mexico, India, African states, Haiti and the Philippine Islands.He uses in-depth studies to present his cases.He's uncompromising in his analyses, but keeping up with his presentation isn't difficult.His prose is clear and undemanding.

A fundamental issue is the expansion of humanity over the planet.He contests the research that indicates population pressures are levelling out, noting that "the largest cohorts of girls ever been born have yet to reach their reproductive years, ensures tremendous momentum behind global population growth."This rise in world population is having local impact already.Resource depletion is causing internal strife along class and ethnic lines, but hasn't escalated into international conflicts, according to Homer-Dixon.Even so, the world is interdependent.He cites the conditions in China as a prime example: "We all have a stake in the success of the grand Chinese experiment with economic liberalization,. . . Whether and how China breaks out of the vicious cycle [of economic growth versus resource depletion] will shape much of human history for decades, if not centuries, to come."

Homer-Dixon's status as a first-rate global analyst was established with this monumental study.He sees "environmental scarcity" leading to civil unrest, with ethnic and class clashes dominating."Scarcity" refers to resources needed to sustain the growing human population - water, cropland, forest assets, fisheries.How will investing countries/firms react to these conflicts?Environmental scarcity often derided as a source of conflict, but he argues that since daily living requirements are so dependent on these available resources, they become a root cause, even when this is not readily apparent.Although these conflicts usually remain internal, resources such as depleted river water supplies may spark international clashes.He offers no policy recommendations for the lazy.However, his analyse of physical and social conditions should lead to improved policy making.He posits a strong call for more research, itself a major policy step.This book is a must-read for policy makers and those who support them - we taxpayers.It's a vivid insight into to world conditions today and a window into tomorrow.

A must read on the relationship of violence and scarcity...
Like most political science books, after I finished this one, I was slightly disappointed. I bought this book in hopes of a masterwork; upon turning its last page, I thought that this book was something much less than this. I thought that it begged as many questions as it sought to answer; I thought that much of what it brought forth as profound was only that in the sense of being profoundly obvious; I thought that the author opened this book with definitions that were overly broad and thus, in the end, proved nothing.

Thankfully, as time has passed, though, my opinion of this book has changed fully and completely. Many of the problems that I saw with this book stemmed from the fact that this book is essentially the first large-scale, well-publicized work of its kind. Its author puts forth a strongly written and researched work into the interrelationship between scarcity and violence on multiple levels; it is both (fairly) easy to understand while still being challenging for those who are not new to the study of conflict....

I'd recommend this book to any student of international or comparative politics-- especially those who are interested in fighting between groups of people. This is probably going to be one of the key books toward understanding what is to come in the world in the next twenty or so years; in this category (though topically somewhat unrelated) I'd suggest van Crevald's 'The Transformation of War' and 'The Rise and Decline of the State' and some of Robert Kaplan's travel books as excellent source material....

I am certain that there are going to be many who dislike what this book says-- but as to how it is written, and how it is researched, it seems to me to have been in large measure flawless. Buy this book.

Seminal thoughtpiece, masterfully written
This book offers brilliant and carefully argued insights into the nexus of relations that the title suggests.Homer-Dixon has made a case for environmental conern all the more powerful by steering away from thedogmatism that so often accompanies such work.Instead, he has presented abook that is the result of years of academic research in a way that anyonewill enjoy reading it. Homer-Dixon is a great writer who knows an enormousamount about this subject and has as a result written an incredible book. Buy it! Read it!Get your professor to put it on the core reading list ofany course about world politics, international relations, environment, andmore! ... Read more